2024 Predictions

AL EAST

Toronto Blue Jays 95-67 (2 seed)
Pittsburgh Pirates 87-75
Philadelphia Phillies 80-82
New York Yankees 76-86
Boston Red Sox 71-91

AL CENTRAL

Texas Rangers 95-67 (3 seed)
Detroit Tigers 92-70 (2 WC)
Chicago White Sox 84-78
Minnesota Twins 83-79
Cleveland Indians 60-102

AL WEST

Los Angeles Dodgers 96-66 (1 seed)
Hollywood Stars 94-68 (1 WC)
California Angels 67-95
San Diego Padres 66-96

NL EAST

Washington Nationals 100-62 (1 seed)
New York Mets 95-67 (1 WC)
Florida Marlins 89-73
Baltimore Orioles 75-87
Atlanta Braves 63-99

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds 93-69 (3 seed)
Houston Astros 92-70 (2 WC)
Kansas City Royals 82-80
St. Louis Cardinals 75-87
Chicago Cubs 55-107

NL WEST

San Jose Athletics 94-68 (2 seed)
Colorado Rockies 91-71
Arizona Diamondbacks 89-73
San Francisco Giants 57-105

PLAYOFFS

WILD CARD

AL- Detroit over Hollywood
NL- New York over Houston

DIVISION SERIES

AL- Los Angeles over Detroit 3-2
AL- Texas over Toronto 3-2
NL- Washington over New York 3-1
NL- San Jose over Cincinnati 3-0

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

AL- Texas over Los Angeles 4-2
NL- San Jose over Washington 4-3

WORLD SERIES

San Jose over Texas 4-3

Who Won the Trade?

-Crow

We continue my  weekly review to judge (maybe prematurely) of who won the trade. We will look at the talent involved, prospects, salary-cap implications for each team and judge each on a basis for THIS year and going forward. Feel free to disagree…

The Basics:

Boston Receives:

SP: John Peterson (93), 25 years-old, 20.5 until ’22 (arbitration)

Milwaukee Receives:

SS: Ian Flory (74/89), 21 years-old, Arbitration ‘25
RF: Rich Schroeder (67/85) = 20 years-old, Arbitration ‘25
SP: Reiji Igarashi (71/90) = 20 years-old, Arbitration ’25
SP: Nate Lagasse (76/87) = 21 years-old, Arbitration ‘25
SP: Nelson Tobias (80/93) = 25 years-old, Arbitration ‘24
MR: Paul Godden (74/84) = 23 years-old, Arbitration ‘22

Season Implications:

Toronto is currently sitting 3 games ahead of Boston in the ALE but the Sox just gained the best SP in the game to help their chances. Peterson has unbelievable control, power, movement, etc…He’s a once in a generation talent who can help them NOW. They were in desperate need to improve their rotation and Peterson will definitely keep them in games. Although Boston needed help in the rotation, I fear that the bullpen may not keep up their current pace of production. If the Red Sox are smart, they will need to build their pen a bit more so they can hang on in games.

The Brewers are in re-building mode and have no real aspirations of contending for this year. This deal moves the best SP in the game and may help them lose a few more along the way to get a better draft pick. We’re not sure who Leb is going to plug into the rotation, but it won’t be someone who can win now. In the short-term we are unsure of how this affects the Brewers since they are looking to move. The current fans in Milwaukee may be pissed about this trade, but from what we’ve heard that won’t affect the future fans (wherever they are).

Long-Term Implications:

Boston receives a cornerstone SP and a possible future HOF’er. Luckily the Sox have the cap space to keep Peterson around until he’s in a nursing home. However, taking a deeper look into the Boston farm, it looks as if he took a big gamble on this acquisition. Tobias is probably near his peak and probably doesn’t have much more room for growth. A positive from this trade is Boston was able to retain their best SP prospect. Yet, it will be interesting to see how the Sox will be able to re-build their depleted farm on the pitching side.

Milwaukee just had a shot of heroin into their farm and franchise by making this deal. They get 6 players for 1...Peterson is great, we know that. However, it's hard to build a team on one player. Salary cap flexibility moving forward is key for this franchise in transition. They could have extended Peterson, but his contract may have hindered them for a few years until Leb could find his footing. If 3 of the 6 players pan out, that's a plus for the Brewers. Milwaukee still has flexibility to trade some of those prospects in the future to further help their cause.

Final Verdict:

Milwaukee wins this trade because of long-term implications. Leb was able to build a solid core of young pitchers and it looks like a heavy price to pay for one player. Boston’s GM is savvy and it will be interesting to see how this plays out for the next few years. If Ryan is able to rebuild his farm after this trade in the subsequent years, I may eventually call this a PUSH. Yet, in the short-term it doesn’t fix Boston’s impending bullpen problem and is only a very over priced band-aid. The Sox get an ace who will be under control, but it’s hard to rebuild the farm depth…Let’s see what Ryan does next and where the team can go in the short/long-term.

Who Won the Trade?

This will be a weekly review by myself (Crow) to judge (maybe prematurely) of who won the trade. We will look at the talent involved, prospects, salary-cap implications for each team and judge each on a basis for THIS year and going forward. Feel free to disagree…

This Week’s Highlighted Trade:

(For the initial installment, we will review the Orioles-Marlins trade since I was involved in it)

The Basics:

Orioles Receive:
SS Trea Turner 89 – 28 years old – 11.8 until ‘22
C Gaetan Galeano 70/89 – 24 years old – arbitration
Marlins 3rd Round Pick (71) and 4th (101)

Marlins Receive:
SS Willy Adames 93 – 26 years old – 15.6 until ‘26

Season Implications:

Baltimore is rebuilding, they great a great defensive stopper at SS. Galeano gives them depth in the minors and sometimes gems can be found in the 3rd and 4th, they also shed almost 4 million in salary during a season where they aren’t expected to really compete as they are rebuilding.

Florida is trying to find their mojo again and wanted to add a big bat or at least a medium-sized one. Their rotation should be their main concern, but they’re hoping offense can help carry them. Galeano was their best prospect, but they saw him as a gamble.

Long-Term Implications:

Baltimore picks up a decent prospect and also add the 3rd and 4th rounders from the Marlins in a deep draft. The Orioles should either be able to use those picks or trade them to get something better in the long-run.

Florida continues to trade draft picks and farm assets to try and compete. The past two years they haven’t seen results using this strategy. However 3rd and 4th round picks are gambles anyhow. Gaining a younger SS in Adames may be beneficial to the team who will continue to be under team control for the near future.

Who Won?

In the long-term the Orioles win this trade…they were able to shed about 4 million in salary while getting an above average catching prospect as well as picks to help rebuild the farm for future trades.

Adames is a great SS, yet he doesn’t have the defensive prowess many teams need up the middle. It looks like the Marlins traded for a bat and are hedging their bets they will be able to out-score teams. Adames makes sense in the short-term, but not for the horrid farm they have now.

Final Verdict

For both teams it's a PUSH...they both have their short-term and long-term values, yet I think each team won for what they're looking for now.

Crow's Pre-Season Predictions

NL East – Washington 99-63
NL Central – Pittsburg 85-77
NL West – Arizona 95-67

NLWC 1 – Colorado 91-71
NLWC 2 – Florida 88-74

AL East – Toronto 84-78
AL Central – Chicago 94-68
AL West – Texas 108-54
ALWC1 – San Jose 99-63
ALWC2 – Houston 89-73


Playoffs:
NLWC: Florida over Colorado
ALWC: San Jose over Houston

Division Series:
Florida over Washington 4-3
Arizona over Pittsburg 4-1

San Jose over Texas 4-2
Chicago over Toronto 4-0

NLCS/ALCS:
Arizona over Florida 4-2
San Jose over Chicago 4-3

World Series:

Arizona over San Jose 4-1

Copied over from League News section. Please give Crow GM credit for article.  

2022 Pre-season Predictions


AL East

1. Toronto      87-76 #3 seed
2. Montreal    86-77
3. NY Yankees 72-90
4. Boston   71-91
5. Baltimore 60-102


AL Central

1. Kansas City  90-72 #2 Seed
2. Chicago       88-74 (WC2)
3. Detroit         84-78
4. Minnesota  69-93
5. Cleveland 54-108

AL West

1. San Jose  100-62 #1 seed
2. Texas    98-64 (WC1)
3. Houston 82-80
4. California 76-86
5. Seattle  60-102

NL East

1. Washington  94- 68 #2 Seed
2. NY Mets   90-72 (WC1)
3. Philadelphia 88-74
4. Florida Marlins 84-78
5. Atlanta Braves - 68-94

NL Central

1. Cincinnati 84-78 #3 Seed
2. Milwaukee 80-82
3. Pittsburgh 75-87
4. Chicago 70-92
5. St. Louis 50-112

NL West

1. Arizona 94-68 #1 Seed
2. LA Dodgers 89-73 (WC2)
3. Colorado 88-74
4. San Francisco 88-74
5. San Diego 64-98


Wild Card Round:

AL:  Texas over Chicago

NL: Mets over Dodgers

Divisonal Round:

AL:

San Jose 3-2 over Texas

Kansas City  3-1 over Toronto

NL:

Arizona 3-2 over Mets

Cincinnati 3-2 over Washington

Championship Rounds

AL

San Jose 4-1 over Kansas City

NL

Arizona 4-0 over Cincinnati

World Series


Arizona 4-3 over San Jose.

2021 Predictions

AL EAST

Toronto Blue Jays 84-78 (3 seed)
Montreal Expos 81-81
New York Yankees 78-84
Baltimore Orioles 70-92
Boston Red Sox 66-96

AL CENTRAL

Chicago White Sox 92-70 (2 seed)
Kansas City Royals 86-76
Detroit Tigers 81-81
Minnesota Twins 77-85
Cleveland Indians 67-95

AL WEST

Texas Rangers 105-67 (1 seed)
San Jose Athletics 97-65 (1 WC)
Houston Astros 90-72 (2 WC)
California Angels 87-75
Seattle Mariners 60-102

NL EAST

Washington Nationals 106-56 (1 seed)
Florida Marlins 93-69 (1 WC)
New York Mets 87-75
Philadelphia Phillies 85-78
Atlanta Braves 80-82

NL CENTRAL

Cincinnati Reds 90-72 (3 seed)
Pittsburgh Pirates 88-74 (2 WC)
Chicago Cubs 83-79
St. Louis Cardinals 72-90
Milwaukee Brewers 70-92

NL WEST

Arizona Diamondbacks 95-67 (2 seed)
San Francisco Giants 84-78
Colorado Rockies 82-80
San Diego Padres 79-83
Los Angeles Dodgers 75-87

PLAYOFS

WILD CARD

AL- San Jose over Houston
NL- Florida over Pittsburgh

DIVISION SERIES

AL- Texas over San Jose 3-2
AL- Chicago over Toronto 3-0
NL- Washington over Florida 3-1
NL- Arizona over Cincinnati 3-2

CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES

AL- Texas over Chicago 4-3
NL- Washington over Arizona 4-2

WORLD SERIES

Texas over Washington 4-3

BOTTOM 5

1. Seattle
2. Boston
3. Cleveland
4. Milwaukee
5. Baltimore

2020 League Samplings

    Recently on a flight with an exceedingly long layover, I had an opportunity to interview a smattering of fellow league GM's. Below is what followed:

First off we started with current reigning world champion (2nd in 3 years) Crow....

Q1. Is a rebuild in the near future? Or do you feel you can win with your current makeup?

Ans). We're constantly trying to rebuild and make our next run in the playoffs. When you ask me the question, "Do you feel you can with your current makeup?" It feels slightly condescending. We just won the World Series for the 2nd time in 3 years - of course we can win, but of course we can miss the playoffs like we did in 2018 with a .500 record. Baseball is a fickle game, you have to have the right combination of players and a little bit of luck. I plan on making a few trades this year to help both in my run for the playoffs and for "re-building". To me, "re-building" is a constant thing...we're always looking to improve.
I'm not a firm believer in the "let's blow it up if we don't win" mentality. I was back at .500 the year after I won 103 games and was the World Series Champion, I could have easily said, "Fuck it, my team isn't producing lets blow this bitch up." If I would have taken that stance, I'm likely not a playoff champion the next year...My goal as a GM is to continually improve my team in trades and our position. If you look back at the history of trades with my team, you will notice that I usually sell one year and try to grow the next. Currently we're in the process of doing both.



Q2. Current prospect(in the upcoming draft) you are most excited about.

Ans). I usually only scout the prospects that will be around my pick range, which currently sits at 30, 32, 92...I'm not at liberty to divulge who I do like and don't like.

Q3. Any changes you would like to see the league make for the long term success and well being of the league.

Ans). I would like to see the league move to a draft lottery as I talked about last year. I've tried to be competitive every year that I've been in the league and it's not fun if I'm not chasing something. My first year - as I was trying to make the team my own, I chased .500 after I traded Jose Fernandez, Joey Votto, and Mike Stanton...I couldn't imagine trying to tank like some teams have in the past (luckily those GM's aren't with us anymore). To me, a lottery helps out to keep all teams competitive throughout the season. My proposal which I shared last year only affects the 1st Round - and then in the subsequent rounds it follows the normal route. With a lottery, there's a 1 in 15 chance a near playoff team could get a difference maker for the next year.

With Crow's answers you can see how competitive this guy is, and while I think a draft lottery could help I just not sure it would get full league backing. Maybe a combination and do a draft lottery type system for IFA's instead of having to throw bid money out or using the lottery to setup the order of preference for signing. I'm sure something can evolve out of this suggestion by Crow. 

Next I sat down with the newest GM of the LA Dodgers, MGM. 

Q1. Are you in position to contend, or do you feel a rebuild is still the best practice?

Ans). I believe that, with one of the strongest rotations I've ever put together in a league, we should be in a position to contend. We really need our lineup to come through though and produce at least some runs to help support our pitching in order to win games. If that doesn't happen and we go on an extended slide through the first half of the season, we may need to re-adjust and rebuild.

Q2. Current prospect(in the upcoming draft) you are most excited about.

Ans). Obviously I would love the top pitcher in the draft, Montrell Johnson, but since I'm picking in the middle of the order, I have to look further down the draft board. I don't intend on revealing my hand on who I'm interested in in the draft.

Q3. Any changes you would like to see the league make for the long term success and well being of the league.

Ans). I believe that in order to keep talent sustained for the long haul, focus needs to be made on improving the depth and quality of the draft classes. The fact that by the time the end of the second round rolls around we have guys with peaks in the mid/upper 70s getting picked shows lack of depth in talent in the draft classes. I'm not suggesting to boost everyone in draft classes, but adjust settings to improve depth at need positions. In addition, some need to be more open to creative and fun changes to increase league activity such as past special features like Winter Ball or Winter League.

That MGM...couldn't get a read on that guy. He seems to be doing something right though. His Dodgers through the first 38 games have a team ERA of 2.57. Tops in the whole league. He may not divulge his current love affair in the upcoming draft but he hit something in that rotation he's built. Maybe this will be his year. 

Finally we end with the league commish. He has informed me that he is effectively re-signing from his post because Chris Sale is a dill hole and he's sorry for that. But no really below are his answers. The third Answer will be bolded unlike everyone elses. There IS A LEGITIMATE RULE CHANGE IN THERE. Please read it. I'm sure it will be posted on the site as well. 

Q1. Is a rebuild in the near future? Or do you feel you can win with your current makeup?

Ans). No rebuild anytime soon. We have just recently in the last season or two called up all of our young guys. We are going into the prime of our players careers and we feel like we have the next while to compete. We have some places we need to build up in the upcoming seasons and we need to replenish the farm but we think we can be a player for years to come.

Q2. Current prospect(in the upcoming draft) you are most excited about. 

Ans). Really like the top of the draft and guys like Montrell Johnson and Eric Galcia. But we won't be anywhere close to getting them nor are we planning on moving up. We are evaluating other guys but we are not in a position to give that draft plan out. We will be looking to build up the future rotation and maybe a 3B and OF.

Q3. Any changes you would like to see the league make for the long term success and well being of the league.

Ans).  I do not know if we will have any changes coming up. We just made a couple of changes this past off season but anything is possible. One rule I am thinking about changing is the debt Free Agents. I am thinking of proposing a rule change that would give allow teams that are in debt when they start Free Agency be allowed to sign/bid on free agents. Here is the official idea below-

If you go into Free Agency in debt, but then trade out of it, you have to wait a 24 hour period or until the next file to begin bidding on Free Agents. This would eliminate a long wait time to bid.

So there you have it. A simple chat among some rival GM's. Whatever they are doing seems to be working and we got some good ideas from Crow and MGM. NWU dropped the ball again but yeah we have a new rule which should help some budget strapped teams. My league suggestion would be why not institute a hard cap and soft cap for budgets like what the NHL uses. This would eliminate "tanking" to an extent and help keep smaller markets more viable with better revenue sharing to help them reach the mid ground salary wise. 

Anyway good luck to all the league GMs this season!!